The March 10th Primaries: Who Will Win?

We’re all coming down off the sugar high of Super Tuesday. So much excitement and drama as Joe Biden inverted the conventional wisdom about the narrative of the primary season by winning almost everywhere but Colorado, Vermont, Utah and California.

Biden won 610 delegates, propelling him into the delegate lead. Sanders won 513, and those delegates added to his existing total to put him 2nd but just by a whisker. Bloomberg paid $600 million to win 60 delegates and Warren massively underperformed and finished with 56. Subsequently Bloomberg and Warren dropped out of the race.

On Tuesday March 10th, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington State go to the polls.

In the 2016 election cycle, Sanders won Michigan which gave his campaign the oxygen it needed to stay in the race almost all the way to the convention. In a series of head-to-head matches with Hillary Clinton, Sanders was winning a fair number and there was always the chance that a Clinton collapse would allow him to catch up to the delegate lead she’d accumulated on Super Tuesday. His win in Michigan showed he could win in states that the conventional wisdom at that time suggested would be certain Clinton victories. Of course while Sanders couldn’t overcome that deficit and lost the primary history shows that what he exposed was a fatal weakness for Clinton in the upper midwest that eventually translated into Donald Trump’s win in the general election (Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a…