Nobody Is Going to Win the Democratic Primary

[Note to Readers: This essay was written before the Pandemic dug in to American politics and changed the trajectory of Biden’s nomination fight. I’m leaving it visible as a reminder that even when you think you understand a process sometimes external forces beyond anyone’s expectation can change the system in radical and unexpected ways.]

There will be 3,979 delegates awarded by the Democratic primaries & caucuses. To win the nomination on the first ballot, a nominee will need 1,990 delegates. My prediction is that none of the candidates will reach this mark.

Before we begin there are two rules you must understand about the way the Democrats will award delegates during their primary season:

1: Candidates must meet a viability threshold of 15% of the vote in the primary or the caucus. Candidates which do not pass this threshold get no delegates.

2: Every state and region that awards delegates rewards them proportionately between the candidates that met the 15% threshold. There are no winner-take-all states.

The effect of Rule #1 is that any delegates which might have been won by the non-viable candidates will be assigned pro-rata to those who were viable. This means that in some early states where the field will be crowded, it’s possible that a substantial number of “extra delegates” might be awarded to the viable candidates, meaning they’ll get more than their strict percentage of the vote.