New Hampshire is Next: Who Will Win?

On Monday February 3rd, Iowa ran its first in the nation caucuses and Wednesday as I write this we still don’t have total results reported. What we do know, with something over 70% reported is that the story of the primary was Pete Buttigieg coming from back in the pack (according to the Real Clear Politics polling aggregator) to effectively tie Bernie Sanders for the lead. Sanders got more votes (by about a thousand) and Buttigieg will get approximately 1 more delegate than Sanders.

My pre-caucus predictions did not fare well against the final outcome, mostly because Joe Biden performed worse compared to his polling numbers than anyone expected, and Mayor Pete outperformed his numbers spectacularly. That scrambled the math for all the remaining candidates. Until Iowa finishes counting and makes a formal declaration of how the delegates will be awarded we can’t wrap up the analysis vs. actuals report for Iowa.

Going in to New Hampshire, how does that impact what we’re seeing in terms of pre-primary polling and analysis?

First, it’s important to note that caucuses are weird compared to primaries. A primary is a “regular election” where people go to a polling place, make a secret ballot, and leave; there’s no electioneering happening inside the polling station. Caucuses are a transparent process where you argue with your neighbors about your vote and everyone in the room knows who you supported (or didn’t). The way Iowa runs its caucus, there are two rounds of “voting”; first people self-assign to…